Growth and the assertion of African military power

The Congolese army has just initiated a joint action with Rwandan troops against Rwandan rebels operating in Congo. It follows a Congolese-Ugandan initiative last month against Ugandan rebels also operating within Congo. I wonder whether growth of government economic capacity could be partially responsible for the increased assertiveness of state militaries.

Most African countries have been growing rapidly in recent years, and one would expect government income from taxes and domestic debt issues to rise as well. It may rise as a proportion of total income, because a larger economy is more likely to use large amounts of fixed physical capital, which is easier to tax and monitor than itinerant labour. Further, a smaller proportion of government income will come from aid and so governments have fewer constraints on their expenditure choices from conditionalities, and they will be freer to spend on military affairs. They may also be freer because of growing international competition from non-Western countries for African governments’ goodwill.

By comparison, rebel groups may experience relatively slower growth in their income because they do not benefit to the same extent from these changes. Further, their bases are often in rural areas, and developing countries have been found frequently to experience less growth in their agricultural sectors than in their industrial and service sectors. Thus, rebels’ available revenue is shrinking relative to that of states.

I looked at changes in government military expenditure on the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (sipri.org) internet site, available free to the public. They say “SIPRI military expenditure data are entirely based on open sources, and as much as possible on official data”, and it is possible that underreporting or inaccuracies are present. Subject to this caveat, here is the data. DR Congo expenditures have more than doubled in constant prices since 1996 in absolute terms, and also risen as a proportion of GDP. Ugandan expenditures rose by 50 percent between 1997 and 2007, although relative to GDP it remained constant. Rwandan expenditure fell in absolute and proportionate terms. It should be noted that Rwanda does not have a domestic insurgency to the extent of Uganda and DR Congo. Two other perennially militarily involved countries in the region, Sudan and Chad, have also seen large increases in military expenditure.

So there is evidence of increased military equipping of the state. It is possible that the changes may lead to less contest to state authority from domestic rebel groups, with which Africa has been plagued in the last half century, but increased clashes between states as they become the only actors able to challenge each other’s might.