Thursday, 19 March 2009

UN population growth projections

The United Nations has published its estimates of world population growth and related statistics here (World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision). The overall world population is projected to rise on a medium basis to 9.1 billion in 2050 from 6.8 billion today. The low to high range is 8.0 to 10.5 billion.

Africa’s largest countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, DR Congo) are projected to become colossal – for example the medium projection for Nigeria puts it at 289 million people by 2050. I am not sure whether allowance has been made for resource scarcity and global warming.

HIV prevalence is projected to remain high in 2025 in many African countries. The figure is projected to be almost a quarter of the sample population in Swaziland, for example. I am not sure if the sample population is adults in an age range or the whole population.

Infant mortality rates are projected to remain high too. For example, almost one in ten children are still expected to die before age five in Mali in the period 2045-50. These latter figures look like they are subject to considerable uncertainties, being dependent on the state of African economies.

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