The outcomes of the Zimbabwean government's actions

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change in Zimbabwe pulled out of the presidential election yesterday, citing violence against its supporters by government linked forces. They have good reasons to be concerned about it, as the risk factors for civil war are very high in the country - major economic contraction, a history of ethnic division, and above all political mobilisation for conflict. These factors are primarily the responsibility of the Zimbabwean government. The MDC's decision and South African shipworkers' inspirational choice not to offload an arms shipment for Zimbabwe may have lowered the risk for the time being.

The economic contraction - possibly unique in a world of growing countries - means that incomes are far lower than they would have been otherwise in an already poor country. The worst damage of war is often indirect, through hunger or disease rather then armaments. Economic activity stops people falling into natural disasters, and war prevents that activity. Starting a war is like shooting the wings off a plane.

The excess mortality in Zimbabwe due to the economic contraction could be calculated. A change in under-five year old child mortality of fifty per thousand is consistent with the corresponding decline in income. The extra deaths may number in the tens of thousands from this source alone.

I hope that the current Zimbabwean government and military realise that history will remember them in the same way as the world's worst leaders if the country continues on its course for much longer.