Thursday 16 July 2009

Reasons to mourn the discovery of oil

Sometimes there are celebrations when oil is discovered in a country. Here are some reasons to mourn the discovery, and apply in both well-run and badly-run countries to a greater or lesser extent.

1. It reduces the pressure for formation of capitalist political groupings and democratic institutions.
2. It often leads to autocratic government.
3. It often leads to seccessionist movements in the areas with the oil wealth.
4. It often leads to military movements associated with the seccession.
5. It increases the opportunity for corruption.
6. It increases the pressure for foreign interference in government.
7. It increases the pressure for foreign military involvement.
8. Economic distance can lead to political isolation from major capitalist economies.
9. It reduces the incentive to invest in physical capital.
10. It reduces the incentive to invest in human capital.
11. It reduces the incentive to innovation.
12. It reduces the options to use new techologies.
13. Growth becomes dependent on other people's economies and innovation.
14. The dependence may lower national esteem.
15. It reduces economic diversification.
16. It makes it more difficult for non-oil producers to export.
17. Import earnings are unstable.
18. Government revenues are unstable.
19. The transition after the oil runs out may be difficult.
20. Oil increases global warming.
21. It often leads to inequality and related problems.

The reasons came to me quickly. They seem fairly good reasons. It might be a challenge to see if fifty of them could be reached within twenty minutes.

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