Wednesday 24 December 2008

Diffusion curves of telecommunications technology

It is sometimes proposed in technology diffusion research that a technology's spread follows an S-curve - slow at first, then quicker, then slow again. Here are the curves for the telephone mainline and mobile phone subscriptions for three African states, one developed nation, and one rapidly developing Asian country. They are pretty much in line with predictions, with less developed countries lower down the S-curves. The kink in the middle of several curves may arise because telephone mainline technology was becoming saturated by the 1980s, and mobile phone technology then started its own individual S-curve.





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